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JEFF KEARNS is on the staff of Finance & Development. Opinions expressed in articles and other materials are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect IMF policy. Giannone, D., L. Reichlin ...

Storm Agnes is seen over the Bay of Biscay offshore western Europe on 27 September 2023 in this image captured by the Flexible Combined Imager on the Meteosat Third Generation satellite. Credit: ...

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In forecasting economic time series, statistical models often need to be complemented with a process to impose various constraints in a smooth manner. Systematically imposing constraints and retaining ...

At first glance, forecasting behavior might seem far-fetched—can we really predict how people will act? It's a fair question. But just as we once questioned whether we could reliably predict the ...

The Trump administration's plan to dismantle the nation's atmospheric research programs could set U.S. forecasting back a generation or more, a cadre of retired federal hurricane, weather and ocean ...